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C00002 00002	Prof Dr. med. Alexander von Graevenitz
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Prof Dr. med. Alexander von Graevenitz
Institut fur Medizinische Mikrobiologie der Universitat Zurich
Gloriastrasse 32 Postfac. CH-8028 Zurich
SWITZERLAND

Dear Alex:

	Thanks for your note of December 14.  The Wall Street Journal
article is accurate on the whole.  There seem to be three main components
to the current anti-nuclear weapons campaign.

1. The churches seem almost unanimous, especially the Catholic church.
This is part of a general leftist trend in the Catholic church.  I
looked at the magazines Commonweal and America (Jesuit) recently.
Except for a few specifically Catholic issues like abortion and
support of non-public schools, the line was more consistently left
than even the Nation.  There was less than in the nation on communist
crimes - Poland, Afghanistan, etc.

	In fact the Nation surprised me recently by mentioning in
an editorial on the Geneva arms negotiation the fact that Brezhnev
has a bargaining advantage, since the SS-20s are in place.  The
article came to the customary conclusion that concessions are up
to the U.S. to make, but I was surprised at the mention of the SS-20s.

2. The other thread in the anti-nuclear weapons campaign is
a movement called Physicians for Social Responsibility, which maintains
that nuclear war is so horrible that any preparations to treat
casualties is pointless.  They almost succeeded in getting a
resolution to that effect through the American Medical Association.

3. The third thread is the "McGovern wing" of the Democratic Party that will
not compromise on slogans no matter what it costs in votes.
This group seems to be softening somewhat and becoming more isolated.
Reagan has had an enormous political success in softening opposition
in spite of a certain incoherence within his administration.  Partly
it's his personality, and partly it's that the old slogans have run
out of gas.

	In spite of all this, I don't think this movement will have
a big effect on the Reagan Administration or Congress unless the
Democrats win substantially next November.  I don't think it will be
able to prevent rearmament or force unsound concessions to the
Russians.  What may have a substantial effect in the next few years
is impatience with the European unwillingness to take the responsibility
for defending themselves.  I could imagine an American pullout from
Europe perhaps accompanied by the Germans acquiring their own nuclear
deterrent.

Best wishes for the new year